Techno-Nationalism – Another Factor Influencing the Geopolitical Environment
Back in 2015, I read Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall—a book that reframed how I looked at global power. It’s a set of sharp observations about past and present geopolitics through the lens of geography. Marshall pushes back on the idea that modern technology has rendered geography irrelevant. Instead, he argues that mountains, rivers, ports, and borders still shape nations’ behavior—whether we acknowledge it or not.
But today, I think, the global map is being redrawn—not by land, but by technology.
From Geography to Technology
For decades, globalism was the dominant narrative: interconnected supply chains, open markets, and shared innovation. But that story is shifting. Nationalism is rising again, and with it, a more fragmented approach to everything from trade to tech.
This doesn’t mean globalism disappears—it evolves. Some nations will embrace selective cooperation. Others will double down on self-sufficiency. We’re entering a hybrid era, where countries mix and match isolationist and globalist strategies depending on what’s at stake.
And what’s most often at stake now? Technology.
Techno-Nationalism
Unlike geography, technology doesn’t stay still. A breakthrough in one country today could define the next decade of economic power. That’s why nations are treating tech leadership as a strategic imperative—not just for growth, but for security.
From AI and semiconductors to biotech, green tech, and quantum computing, governments are prioritizing domestic control, funding local R&D, and tightening restrictions on cross-border collaboration.
The shift is real—and accelerating. Whether it’s chip export controls, data localization laws, or new subsidy programs, we’re watching a wave of tech-first protectionism unfold.
Strategic Tools for a Fragmented Future
How can businesses, governments, and investors prepare? I believe two strategic tools are essential right now:
1. Scenario Planning
We need to move beyond linear forecasting. By mapping out different futures—decoupled systems, multipolar tech blocs, selective cooperation—we can help organizations stress-test their strategies and build resilience.
Scenario planning isn’t just theory. It helps leaders make practical decisions on investment, partnerships, supply chains, and innovation pipelines—before the next policy shift or geopolitical flare-up happens.
2. The Tech Strategy Matrix
One approach I recommend is building a tech strategy matrix for each country or region. You score key technologies—like AI, biotech, or semiconductors—based on domestic control, protectionist policies, and strategic investment levels.
The result? A clearer view of how governments are positioning themselves—and what that means for anyone operating globally.
Why This Matters for Corporates and Policymakers
Understanding techno-nationalism isn’t just an academic exercise. It directly affects:
Trade policy and tariffs
Supply chain resilience
Revenue risk from regulatory fragmentation
Innovation cycles and cross-border R&D
Shifting alliances and trade agreements
For multinational companies, scenario thinking and technology mapping can reveal vulnerabilities before they become crises—and opportunities before competitors spot them.
Final Thought
Techno-nationalism is no longer a fringe concept. It’s a central force in global strategy. As the world’s innovation hubs drift into partial decoupling, success will belong to those who treat tech as geopolitics—and prepare accordingly.
